After more than five decades in power, Syria’s Assad dynasty was overthrown on Sunday with President Bashar al-Assad fleeing to Russia and rebels taking control of the capital, Damascus.
Assad’s departure brings a dramatic end to his nearly 14-year struggle to cling to power as his country is divided in a brutal civil war.
While the rebel coalition was made up of several factions, the group believed to be leading the offensive across Syria is Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, or Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.
What is Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham?
According to the United States The National Counterterrorism Center’s list of foreign terrorist organizations, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham is an alliance of “Sunni Islamist rebel groups” based in northern Syria, which evolved from Jabhat al-Nusra, or “Al-Nusra Front.”
That’s the rule‘Our previous branch in Syria.
The group’s leader, Abu Muhammad al-Julani – alternately written as Al-Julani and Al-Julani – severed his ties with Al Qaeda in 2016. The US National Counterterrorism Center says the separation occurred due to “strategic differences.”
In 2017, Jabhat al-Nusra merged with other anti-Assad groups in Syria to form Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.
Joseph Varner, The deputy director of the Conference of Defense Societies told Al-Julani that Al-Qaeda was very extremist.
“The starting point was always that they found Al Qaeda and ISIS to be too violent and unconcerned with civil rights,” Varner said.
The US State Department designated Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organization in 2018, a designation it still holds to this day.
Who is Abu Muhammad al-Julani?
Al-Julani’s ties to Al-Qaeda go back to 2003, when he joined the insurgents fighting American forces in Iraq. The US military arrested the Syrian citizen, but he remained in Iraq, according to the Associated Press.
During that period, an al-Qaeda splinter group called the Islamic State of Iraq was formed, led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
In 2011, a popular uprising in Syria against Assad sparked a brutal government crackdown and led to all-out civil war. Al-Julani’s fame increased when Al-Baghdadi sent him to Syria to establish the Al-Nusra Front.
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The US government has offered a reward of $10 million for anyone who provides information about him.
In 2013, the Associated Press reported that Al-Julani defied Al-Baghdadi’s calls to disband the Nusra Front and merge it with Al-Qaeda’s operation in Iraq, to form the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS.
However, Al-Julani declared his allegiance to Al-Qaeda. Which later distanced itself from ISIS. In 2016, he also broke away from Al-Qaeda.
As he entered Damascus behind his victorious fighters on Sunday, he dropped his nom de guerre and referred to himself by his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, the Associated Press reported.
He said: “Syria deserves an institutional system of government, not a system in which a single ruler makes arbitrary decisions.” In an interview with CNN last week, This presents the possibility of eventually dissolving Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham after the fall of Assad.
He added: “Do not judge by words, but by actions.”
Ferry de Kerckhove, a former Canadian diplomat and former Canadian ambassador to Egypt, said that Western countries may have to sit at the table with Al-Julani.
He added: “He has a reward of 10 million US dollars that the Americans have set for whoever comes to him. “I do not know how he will be received in the various palaces in Europe and the United States, but I think they will have to cancel it because he is clearly a leader,” De Kerkhof said.
What are the early signs?
Since his break from Al-Qaeda and ISIS, Al-Julani has sought to distance himself from both groups.
Al-Julani identified not only the Assad regime but also ISIS as his enemy, said Evren Altinkas, an assistant professor at the University of Guelph.
“Al-Julani has recognized the fact that if he continues to insist on his original Salafist Islamic faith, he may not receive the full support of the Western media and global public opinion,” he said.
Altinkas said that Al-Julani was strongly promoting a message of moderation.
“(He wants) to tell the world and tell the countries of the region that he is no longer what he was before, and he wants to create a unified and stable democracy in Syria. But, of course, it will be under the guidance of Islamic rule.”
De Kerkhof said that the early signs shown by Al-Julani are encouraging.
“The first action he took, which I liked, was to allow the government to continue running the show,” he said, referring to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s decision to allow Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir to remain in office.
While his past as a former extremist leader has worried some observers, many are watching what he has said recently.
In a Recent interview with CNNAl-Julani said that they will assure Christians and other religious and ethnic minorities that they will enjoy their rights in Syria after Assad is ousted.
“He says all the right things that will give you hope,” Varner said.
He added: “He’s kind of a chameleon. He swore allegiance to Al-Zarqawi (Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi) and then to Al-Baghdadi (Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi), and he separated from them and formed his own organization. Now he is trying to sound like a statesman. He is a man who changes with the times.”
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham has controlled the Idlib region in northwestern Syria since 2018.
Observers say this could be a precursor to how they rule Syria.
“Based on the reports we received from that area, they were fair toward other groups within the area,” Altinkas said.
However, he added that it is not enough to ascertain how they treat minorities in a larger area. He added that many minority-controlled areas saw people leave for other parts of Syria or travel abroad during the civil war.
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, which Altinkas said is backed by Türkiye, will have to take control of the Kurdish-controlled northern parts of the country to avoid further escalation of the conflict.
He said: “I believe that Syria will serve as a potential powder keg for the conflict and for more proxy wars in the coming months if Al-Julani cannot achieve his goals by bringing all these groups together and establishing a democratic state through elections.”
The civil war has been raging in Syria since before the formation of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham.
How did Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham succeed in doing what rebel groups have not been able to do for 14 years?
Varner said it was a matter of timing, with Assad’s allies preoccupied with other conflicts.
“The Russians were very preoccupied with Ukraine. The Iranians were very preoccupied with what was happening with Hezbollah. And I think Hezbollah was badly damaged.”
“These three things created the conditions for the rebel forces to advance towards Damascus. The Syrian army does not want to fight. After 14 years, they didn’t want to play the game. “All the chickens returned to their homes to roost, and the government fell.”
—With files from The Associated Press
