The US presidential race between US Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is expected to be very close, meaning the winner may not be known until after November 5.
One big reason is that election workers across the country will have to count millions of mail-in ballots — including in key battleground states that each have their own rules for handling and counting those votes.
Early voting numbers indicate that turnout is expected to be high. Nearly 70 million Americans have already cast their ballots either in early voting or by mail, and more than 67 million mail-in ballots have been requested, according to University of Florida Elections Laboratory.
Nearly two-thirds of American voters cast ballots early in 2020 — more than 100 million votes — as the COVID-19 pandemic fueled the expansion of voting by mail and advance in-person balloting. That election was not decided until four days after Election Day as mail-in ballots were counted.
Matthew LeBow, a political science professor at Western University who studies American politics, said a decision on this election may take longer.
“It’s very close,” he said.
“If it all comes down to Penn State, it might take a few more days.”
How are mail-in ballots counted?
The latest FiveThirtyEight poll average shows that less than two points separate Harris and Trump nationally. In the seven states that could ultimately decide the winner of the Electoral College and the presidency, the gap is just a tiny fraction of 1 percent — making every vote count.
In two of those states, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, election workers are not allowed to begin processing or tabulating mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day, meaning it will likely be several more days before the outcome is known.
Processing requires that each mail-in ballot be manually opened and prepared for counting, with workers flattening the ballots by hand.
Pennsylvania is seen as the most important battleground of all, and polls show Harris and Trump virtually tied.
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Statehood is the main reason the world waited four days to find out who would win the 2020 election. As election workers made their way through a slew of mail-in ballots, Pennsylvania ultimately flipped from what appeared to be a Trump lead to a victory for US President Joe Biden. .
Other states considered key battlegrounds — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina — are allowed to start processing mail-in ballots before Election Day, meaning vote counting can begin relatively quickly.
However, those states are also expected to be very close, and the sheer number of ballots that need to be counted could delay results there as well.
In Arizona, where 90 percent of votes are cast by mail, vote counting cannot begin until after the polls close. Voters can also drop off their ballots until then as well.
“This also involves election officials going around and collecting ballots from everywhere to count them. “It’s a really long process,” said Samara Klar, a political science professor at the University of Arizona.
Georgia state law requires that vote counting not begin until the morning of Election Day, but also stipulates that all early votes — in-person and mail — must be counted and reported by 8 p.m. local time on Election Night.
If Harris or Trump can win at least two of those states decisively, the outcome could be known on election night — making Pennsylvania less important, LeBow said.
However, there may be fewer mail-in ballots to handle this year, because the end of pandemic-era restrictions means voters feel more comfortable voting in person.
In 2020, two-thirds of the 101 million advance votes were cast by mail. This year so far, early voting has been roughly evenly split between in-person and mail-in, with nearly five million additional ballots cast at physical polling places, according to University of Florida Elections Laboratory.
How the race will be called
Major US outlets on the ground will use all the information at their disposal to make the most accurate predictions possible when a winner is declared, relying on teams of polling experts and mathematicians to map the implications as exit polls are tallied and the effects of the Electoral College become clearer. clear.
The Associated Press Decision Team, which will be closely watched by many international media outlets including Global News, sends journalists to polling places across the country who work with vote entry clerks and election officials to present data to the decision team.
This team then analyzes the data and considers whether the late favorites are far behind enough that there is no chance of overtaking the winner.
This means that some states that typically vote overwhelmingly for one party — for example, California and New York for Democrats, or Kentucky and Tennessee for Republicans — can almost always be called early on election night, while battleground states A battle that will take longer depending on how close the votes are. Candidates are.
“We try to call races as soon as possible but we never risk making a mistake and declaring a winner when there isn’t actually a winner,” David Scott, who oversees the AP decision-making team, said. He told NPR last week.
Many media outlets have their own decision-making teams, which have their own criteria for when races are called. This means that some nearby states may be called before or after the AP makes a call.
An example of this occurred in 2020, when Fox News called Arizona for Biden before any other media outlet. The call ended up being correct and marked an important moment when it became clear that Biden might win the election outright.
Amid delays in announcing the winner in 2020, Trump preemptively and falsely declared victory on election night. As early Republican leads in several states shrank as mail-in and other ballots were being counted, he spread since-debunked claims of widespread voter fraud as the official.
Trump repeatedly said during the 2024 campaign that he would only lose if the election was “rigged” or if Democrats “Cheats.”
Poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research The report released Monday shows that Americans are concerned about what might come after Election Day, especially if the winner isn’t immediately clear.
About four in 10 registered voters said they were “very” or “extremely” concerned about violent attempts to overturn the results after the November election. A similar percentage expressed concern about legal efforts to do so. About a third of voters said they were “extremely” or “very” concerned about attempts by local or state election officials to prevent final results from being finalized.
Lippo said the public needs to remember that the electoral process, at its core, can be trusted.
“Every time the votes are counted, there are Democrats and Republicans watching,” he said. “These are fair elections, and the counting of votes is done fairly.”
—With files from The Associated Press and Reuters
