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US Election: Will Harris and Trump’s foreign policy plans help or hurt Canada? -My homeland

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The world is closely watching the US presidential election for clues about how a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency might respond to growing global challenges and security threats — and Canada could find itself in the spotlight in either scenario.

Neither Trump nor Harris have made foreign policy a focus of their campaigns, and polls show international affairs relatively low on voters’ list of concerns compared to the economy and immigration.

However, the next US president will have to respond to a growing number of crises abroad that have a direct American interest: the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the threats of foreign intervention posed by Russia, China, Iran, India and others, and the unrest they are fueling. In the Indo-Pacific region and climate change between them.

There are also open questions about how Harris and Trump will handle long-standing alliances such as NATO and the US Air Defense Command (NORAD), and whether Canada will be told to ramp up its defense efforts after facing spending pressures during the Biden administration and the previous Trump administration.

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Here’s what both Harris and Trump have suggested or said about their foreign policy stances, and how Canada could adapt — or find itself out in the cold.

In explaining her foreign policy views, Harris pointed to her record as Vice President in strengthening US President Joe Biden’s reliance on global allies and alliances.

She says her meetings and discussions with world leaders prepared her for the presidency and showed those leaders that she was ready to maintain US leadership on the world stage.

“Vice President Harris will ensure that America, not China, wins the competition in the 21st century, and that we strengthen, not abdicate, our global leadership,” her campaign policy outlines.

Regarding Ukraine, Harris said the United States will continue to support its fight against the Russian invasion and help Ukraine win on the battlefield, which she says will ensure an end to the war. She reaffirmed NATO’s support for defending its members from Russian aggression.

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Harris described Iran as America’s “greatest adversary” following its direct attacks on Israel and pledged to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program could never produce a weapon.

It reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Israeli self-defense, and while using stronger language in calling for an end to the Israeli military attack on Gaza, it angered progressive American and Arab American voters by not pushing for an Israeli arms embargo.

Recent statements from the White House on the conflict in the Middle East attributed to both Biden and Harris did not refer to a ceasefire, although the Harris campaign says it is helping to secure it.

Her campaign says Harris is “committed to continuing and building on U.S. international climate leadership.”


Click to play the video:


Top US diplomat returns to the Middle East to press for a ceasefire


Trump and Republicans have often referred to the Trump administration’s approach to foreign policy as “peace through strength.”

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His platform calls for major military investments and modernizations, including an Iron Dome missile defense system similar to the one used by Israel, and increased troop salaries.

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“Republicans will promote a foreign policy centered on America’s most important interests, starting with protecting the American homeland, our people, our borders, our great American flag, and our rights under God,” the 16-page platform said.

The platform refers to “countering China” and supporting the security and independence of countries in the Indo-Pacific region, but mostly focuses on halting China’s economic progress.

Trump said he would reach peaceful solutions to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East within days of taking office. However, he did not say whether he wanted Ukraine to win over Russia and hinted that he was open to Ukraine giving up the disputed territories as part of the negotiations. His program does not mention Ukraine at all.

He said Israel must end its campaign in Gaza “quickly,” but must destroy Iranian nuclear facilities in response to recent Iranian attacks. Iran, along with China, has been a frequent target of Trump.


Click to play the video:


Trump talks about “very good relationship” with Putin during his meeting with Zelensky


Trump’s platform says it will “strengthen alliances” by ensuring they “fulfill their commitments to invest in our common defense.”

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In public, he has spoken more clearly, repeatedly saying that he may not come to the aid of NATO allies who do not spend at least 2 percent of GDP on defense — even suggesting that countries like Russia can “do whatever the hell they want.” Hell”. “.

During his first term, Trump often said he “gets along well” with authoritarian leaders whose governments are seen as hostile to the United States, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. .

Trump’s immigration policy is also closely tied to his foreign policy, arguing that defending America begins with securing its borders.

How will Canada be affected?

Although Canada will likely be able to find common ground with either the Harris or Trump administration on foreign policy, analysts say that will not matter as long as Canada continues to fail to meet its NATO obligations.

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Canada is one of only eight countries in the 31-member North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that does not meet the 2 per cent defense spending threshold.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada is expected to achieve the goal by 2032.


However, the parliamentary budget officer said in a report this week that current projections were based on “erroneous” economic forecasts, and no clear plan had been presented on how to achieve the 2 per cent target.

Whether the pressure the United States and its allies put on Canada to escalate remains relatively civil or is more assertive will likely depend on who is elected in November.

“Kamala Harris believes in compromise with allies, and Donald Trump would rather dictate to them and wants to see the color of their money,” said Colin Robertson, a senior fellow at the Canadian World Affairs Institute, who said Trudeau’s timeline was for 2032. That’s not enough for any of the candidates.

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Even if Harris is elected and takes a friendlier tone with Canada on defense spending, Republicans in Congress are expected to keep up the pressure.

One top Republican lawmaker, U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, recently wrote an op-ed in which he portrayed Trudeau, not Trump, as the real “threat” to NATO stability due to missed spending targets and deficient equipment that he said could not be relied upon.

While Canadian military aid contributions to Ukraine were slightly higher than the United States in terms of share of GDP, Turner noted that Canadian aid pales in comparison to the actual equipment sent.

The bigger issue, experts say, is that Canada’s defense shortfalls have created a “reliability and reputation deficit” that will continue to undermine its alliances on the world stage.


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Trudeau says Canada’s true contribution to NATO is not reflected in “straightforward” calculations.


Christian Lebrecht, a professor at Queen’s University and the Royal Military College and a senior fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said recent immigration issues, such as the arrest of several alleged plotters of terror attacks this year, may further isolate Canada.

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If Trump decides to withdraw US leadership on issues like aid to Ukraine and climate change, for example – or even withdraw from NATO or NORAD, as some fear he might do – Canada may find it difficult to establish itself as a reliable partner.

Canada has also done itself no favors Rejected requests from Germany and Japan Lebrecht said the two countries – allies and major trading partners – are seeking to export more natural gas amid energy shortages caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“We have made ourselves less strategically important to the partners we desperately need if Trump is elected to counterbalance the unilateralism of the Trump era,” he said.

“There is a risk that we will be left out in the cold, (and) this trend of underinvestment in defence, in foreign policy… may come back to haunt us.”

Lebrecht added that a Harris administration may still pose the same risks to Canada and apply similar unilateral pressure — but with a “smile.”

The federal government is proactively strengthening relationships with U.S. lawmakers and businesses to prepare for a Harris-Trump administration.

Robertson said Canada will need to ensure it has a voice with either administration to address the economic and security threat posed by China in the Indo-Pacific region.





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