The new year will return Donald Trump to the White House and usher in a new wave of anxiety as America’s closest neighbors brace for the Republicans’ disruptive agenda and looming threats of massive tariffs.
It has long been the norm for the next president to have an ambitious 100-day plan. Republicans say that Americans, who elected Trump and gave GOP lawmakers a majority in Congress, signed the mandate.
“There’s supposed to be a bunch of executive orders on day one,” said Christopher Sands, director of the Canada Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.
Trump said he would not be a dictator, “except on day one.” The big question is what’s in the package for Trump’s first day back and how that will impact Canada.
The president-elect indicated in November that at the top of his plans was an executive order to impose a 25 percent tariff on all products coming into the United States from Canada and Mexico.
In a social media post a few weeks after the election, Trump said the tariffs would remain in place until both countries stopped drugs and people from crossing the border illegally. In response, Justin Trudeau went to Florida to have dinner with Trump and his team at Mar-a-Lago, but the prime minister withdrew without any guarantees that Canada would get exemptions.
Canada then announced a series of measures to strengthen the border with a $1.3 billion package in response to Trump’s threat.
Sands said he would be watching to see how Congress and the business community react if the tariffs are enacted. The executive orders could be challenged in court, and many American industries, especially the auto sector, would be harmed by the tariffs.
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Sands said Congress is unlikely to pick a fight with Trump, but there are limits. This could be harmful to business deals and Americans’ wallets.
“The ultimate check on all of this is that the public doesn’t like the impact of tariffs,” Sands said. “They complain to Congress. Congress takes back its powers or says, ‘No’… This is Canada’s last hope.”
Aside from the threat of imposing tariffs, Trump relied in his election campaign on a large number of promises upon his return. He promised structural changes, possibly firing thousands of federal employees, scaled back environmental protections, and said he wanted to “drill, drill, drill” on day one.
The president-elect also pledged to begin mass deportations of immigrants.
After Trump won the 2016 election, thousands of people, fearful of Republicans’ initial deportation threats, began heading north across the US-Canada border. Canadian officials and law enforcement are preparing in case there is a surge again.
Alasdair Roberts, a professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, said the temptation of the 100-day index should be resisted.
“The philosophy of governance is if you can’t get what you want in the first phase of your administration, you’re going to sink after that,” Roberts said, adding that presidents are unlikely to do everything they promised in that time frame.
Roberts believes there will be quick action on immigration, although any kind of mass deportation will take time. He also expects administrative reforms, including something like “Schedule F,” which would turn career civil servants into political appointees who are easier to fire and hire.
It’s certainly not the first time Trump has faced a long list of lofty campaign promises. When he ran for president in 2016, he pledged to immediately renegotiate trade deals and deport immigrants.
While NAFTA was renegotiated during the first Trump administration and replaced by the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, it was by no means immediate. Republicans’ initial deportation efforts and travel bans from Muslim-majority countries ran into multiple obstacles.
Trump’s key 2016 promise to repeal and replace Democratic President Barack Obama’s health care law famously failed after then-Republican Sen. John McCain rejected it.
Only one of the laws promised by Trump had been introduced to Congress by April 2017, and it had not been adopted, Roberts said.
“Not exactly a legislative campaign — even though Trump’s party controls both chambers of Congress,” Roberts previously noted in a Wilson Quarterly article.
Roberts said the first six months of the year will see a big push for change. But he warned, “Canadians should be wary of this rhetoric.”
The president-elect returns to participate in the second round after learning from previous obstacles. His team is prepared and fiercely dedicated.
Senate Republicans are meeting to lay the groundwork for the ambitious legislative agenda. Possibilities include energy policies, border security and defense priorities that could be approved in the first 30 days of Trump’s presidency.
The Republican-majority Congress convenes on January 3. The Senate expects to quickly begin holding confirmation hearings for Trump’s top Cabinet nominees, and that will indicate whether there are any Republicans in attendance, said Matthew LeBow, a specialist in American politics at Western University in London, Ontario. Ready to stand up to the president-elect.
Some of Trump’s picks, including Fox News anchor Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, are facing resistance.
LeBeau said he will be watching to see whether lawmakers follow their moral judgment and break with Trump — or whether they read their noses and approve of the president-elect’s choices.
“Are all the guardrails really down?” Libo asked.
—With files from The Associated Press
& Edition 2025 The Canadian Press
