Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has received multiple briefings about the potential for prolonged unrest or even violence in the wake of Tuesday’s US election, a senior government source told Global News.
It is the “third scenario” that senior officials, cabinet ministers and the prime minister have discussed in the event that neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris wins a decisive victory on Tuesday night.
Just eight years ago, it would have seemed remarkable that the Canadian government would spend time at the highest levels discussing the potential for major instability in the wake of a U.S. presidential election — whether that be widespread protests, uncertainty about the winner or even political violence.
Trump’s victory in 2016 – and the chaos of the following years, culminating in the attack on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 – changed this reality.
The official — who has direct knowledge of the briefings but would speak only on condition of anonymity — said opinions differ within the government on the likelihood of this third scenario occurring, and that most discussions focused on how Canada would respond to either. Trump or Harris wins. The source said there is general confidence that regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s vote, American institutions are strong enough to withstand the repercussions.
But there were troubling signs of growing election denial and calls for violence in the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s vote.
The Global Project Against Hate and Extremism, a US-based charitable organization that tracks transnational extremist activity, reported last month that it had observed a significant increase in “violent rhetoric related to election denial” in October.
“We are seeing the same warning signs of political violence based on election denial combined with violent language across fringe platforms that we saw in the weeks leading up to the 2020 election and prior to the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the Capitol,” the organization wrote.
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“Posts on (social media platform) Telegram include the use of election denial to justify what appears to be an ‘inevitable civil war’ and a call to ‘shoot to kill any illegal voters.’” Throughout the year, (far-right group) Proud Boys accounts were online …calling for elected officials to be “arrested, tried for treason, and hanged,” and called on their supporters to “keep your guns by your side.”
Trudeau’s office declined to respond to detailed questions from Global News for this article. Instead, the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) pointed to Trudeau’s comments last month in a podcast on the Village Media website.
“I’ve been very careful to make sure Americans know that this is their choice, and my job as Canadian prime minister is to stand up for Canada whoever they elect,” Trudeau said.
The Prime Minister added that his government has already dealt with challenges during Trump’s last term – including renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement and responding to attacks on Canada’s steel, aluminum and agriculture sectors.
But Trudeau said Harris has “certain protectionist tendencies” when it comes to trade as well, which is now “par for the course” in Canada-U.S. relations.
“So, one of the things I’m thinking about is that it looks like the election is going to be so close, more or less, that many of the factors that we’re going to face in the future, we’re going to face independent of who ends up sitting in the White House,” Trudeau said.
“Taking that consistent approach that is there to fundamentally protect Canadian interests, which is the core business of any Canadian prime minister, is what I will do.”
Of course, a decisive victory for Harris or Trump on Tuesday does not preclude the possibility of unrest in a highly polarized America.
Even before the polls opened, Trump was baselessly telling his followers that Democrats were planning to steal the election — repeating his baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen for President Joe Biden. Trump does not seem likely to accept defeat graciously.
A Trump victory could also spark widespread demonstrations and protests in major American cities, such as those that occurred after his 2016 victory.
“I think the one thing that really worries me more than anything else is that the outcome is so close that it leads to, you know, chaos in the United States,” said David MacNaughton, Canada’s former ambassador to the United States. Western bloc Mercedes Stevenson this week.
McNaughton was Canada’s envoy to Washington from 2016 to 2019, during Trump’s first term, so he is familiar with the unrest in America. In a situation like the 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, which had to be resolved in the Supreme Court, “you can only imagine the turmoil that would continue,” he said.
“So I hope it’s clear one way or the other. I think we can handle either outcome, but I think chaos won’t be in anyone’s interest.”
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