Some Canadians looking to the skies this weekend may enjoy the surprise of two solar flares blasting down on the sun on its way to Earth, potentially creating some intense displays of the northern lights.
The Space Weather Prediction Center of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Thursday A strong geomagnetic storm The watch was issued from October 4 to 6 due to a pair of coronal mass ejections.
The expected light show will be among many aurora sightings seen this year. This is due to the Sun’s magnetic field, which peaks in its 11-year cycle, creating more solar storms, resulting in more frequent northern lights.
“So far, this peak is significantly exceeding expectations and has not yet reached the summit,” David Knudsen, chair of the Department of Physics and Astronomy at the University of Calgary, told Global News on Thursday.
On Tuesday, scientists recorded one of the most powerful solar flares of the cycle, considered X7, which was surpassed two days later by X9 on Thursday, the largest since 2017.
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According to Stanford Solar Energy CenterSolar flares typically range from B — considered too small to damage Earth — up to X, which can lead to planet-wide radio blackouts and long-lasting radiation storms.
When these flares interact with the Earth, they cause geomagnetic storms which are then rated from G1 to G5 in terms of strength, with G1 seeing potential fluctuations in a vulnerable power grid, while G5 has the potential to cause some grid systems to experience a complete blackout. . The geomagnetic storm that struck this weekend has been given a G3 rating.
But while there may be concerns about power grids, there is still excitement among sky watchers for what these storms could mean at night.
“For the next couple of nights, there is a chance,” aurora chaser Chris Ratzlaff told Global News on Thursday. “Then, probably over the next three or four years, like with the X9, we start to understand what that looks like, and it could extend into the weekend.”
Ratzlaff gave about a 35% probability that Calgary, for example, would likely see the northern lights, especially Friday afternoon and evening and early to mid-morning Saturday.
according to Mapping by NOAAMany parts of Canada may see the aurora borealis with a higher probability extending across regions, from British Columbia to Quebec, although parts of southern Ontario may be less fortunate. According to the forecast, many marine areas also have a lower probability of sightings.
There is still potential for storms to intensify or weaken, NOAA spokeswoman Erica Growsea told The Associated Press.
“There is still a fair amount of uncertainty,” Si said.
Given the activity taking place in the sun, this is not the first time Canada has had such an opportunity to view the lights. Unusually powerful solar storms in May produced spectacular aurora displays across the Northern Hemisphere, but NOAA said this weekend they may be a bit less in terms of light shows due to less emission from the high-energy plasma that drives them.
—With files from Sarah Ovin of Global News and The Canadian Press
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