Pierre Trudeau has described living next door to the United States as “sleeping with an elephant,” a feeling his son is keenly aware of amid this year’s tumultuous and polarized US election.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau likely pondered his father’s words about Canada’s proximity to the United States: “One is moved by every shudder and grunt.”
The United States is Canada’s closest neighbor and largest trading partner, and whoever wins the White House in November will be in charge during the review of the Canada-United States-Mexico agreement in 2026.
While Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump approach trade differently, each is promoting protectionist policies that could create uncertainty for Canada.
“We’ve done that before,” Trudeau said recently when asked about both presidential candidates saying they would push for a review of the crucial trade agreement.
“We can do it again if we need to.”
Harris campaigned on her vote against the trilateral agreement and made comments supportive of the Biden administration’s Procurement America rules.
On the other hand, Trump’s declared love of tariffs is central to his agenda. He had previously proposed a 10 per cent blanket tariff – pushing it above 50 per cent in recent interviews.
“For me, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is ‘tariffs,’” Trump said on Tuesday.
This speech rings alarm bells north of the border. More than 77 percent of Canadian exports go to the United States, and 60 percent of Canada’s gross domestic product comes from trade.
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce earlier this month released a report suggesting that Trump’s 10 per cent tariffs would reduce the size of the economy between 0.9 and one per cent, resulting in economic costs of about $30 billion annually. Things will get worse if other countries respond with tariff walls of their own.
The first Trump administration showed how vulnerable Canada was to America’s whims when the former president scrapped the North American Free Trade Agreement.
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Negotiations on CUSMA, often called the “new NAFTA,” were a major test for Ottawa after Trump’s victory.
Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland called the updated trilateral agreement “a victory for all Canadians,” and experts say it is more moderate than Trump originally threatened.
But Trump’s trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, criticized the renegotiation process, writing in his book that at one point “NAFTA was hanging by a thread.”
“With Trump in power, he is certainly a very volatile person,” said Laura Dawson, an expert on Canada-U.S. relations and executive director of the Future Frontiers Coalition.
“Its impact on global stability and security and international relations with the United States will be significant – and not in a good way,” he added.
Canada has learned lessons from his first presidency. Dawson said Trump pursued a fairly traditional Republican trade agenda interspersed with explosive outbursts of personal interest. He handed most of the responsibility for the business relationship to the more predictable Lighthizer.
Alec Beck, chairman of the Minnesota Republican Party’s 5th Congressional District, said he believes talk of Trump as an isolationist is exaggerated. Beck, whose state shares an 885-kilometre border with Canada, said the two countries should work together and that tariffs are a bad idea.
“They may feel great, but it’s about the sugar high,” the Republican said earlier this month.
If Harris wins, there will be more normal relationships based on established patterns and rules, said Aaron Ettinger, a professor of politics at Carleton University in Ottawa.
The vice president is expected to follow the path set by President Joe Biden, which has brought some stability but not much change. He has largely kept Trump’s tariffs in place, despite promises to repeal them.
Biden also signed an executive order revoking the permit for Keystone XL, which would have transported oil from Alberta to Nebraska.
Dawson said she expects the Harris administration to continue taking nationalistic and protectionist actions.
Harris has campaigned on bringing manufacturing jobs back to the United States. It’s a great logo and a great poster, “but it’s terrible if you’re Canada,” Dawson said.
The impact of these policies on Canada-US relations may not be clear to voters, who support America First slogans.
Jeremy Washington says he believes electing the Republican presidential nominee would help both countries. The 27-year-old, who was at a recent Trump campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, said change was necessary “because the things that destroyed…America also affected Canada, like unrestricted immigration, rising housing prices, and the currency seemed to be weak.” . It’s worthless.”
Experts have warned that trade threats and tariffs will also bring costs for Americans.
Dawson warned Trudeau’s team during a Cabinet meeting in August that no matter who wins the US presidency, Canada will have to work harder to maintain its current advantages of integrated trade and travel.
Canada will rely more on one-time lobbying and advocacy for special treatment as both Republicans and Democrats move away from the security of historic trade deals.
Experts and business groups have sounded the alarm about Canada’s changing role toward its closest allies. Many say the relationship between the two countries has shifted from strategic to transactional, with Canada becoming less important compared to other places in the world.
A report by the Independent Expert Group on Canada-US Relations, which includes former diplomats, political advisers and business leaders, warned that Ottawa was “sleepwalking” ahead of the 2026 trade agreement review. The July report described Trump’s current relationship with the Liberal government as “lukewarm in “Best conditions.”
Dawson said Canadian concerns will not be dispelled in the next few weeks before the election. It won’t be clear what either camp has in store for the Canadian relationship until well after November.
“I’m more concerned about how we go down this path, the falling dominoes, that will move during the review of the new NAFTA.”
& Edition 2024 The Canadian Press
