If Canadians could vote in the US elections, a majority would choose to send Kamala Harris to the White House.
In a new poll by polling firm Léger, 64 per cent of Canadian respondents said that if they were able to cast a ballot, they would put their support behind Vice President Harris while 21 per cent would support former President Donald Trump. Fifteen percent were not sure what to do.
Those who intend to vote Conservative in the upcoming Canadian election are split over where their hypothetical votes will go. 45% support Trump, while 42% said they would vote for Harris.
Canadians aged 55 and older, Quebecers and women were more likely to support Harris.
We’re less than two weeks away from the race for the Oval Office after a turbulent campaign season that saw President Joe Biden remove his name from the Democratic ticket, support surges around Harris and two attempts on Trump’s life.
Seventy per cent of Canadian participants in the new poll expressed interest in the current US election, with Liberal voters and people aged 55 or older more likely to be influenced by the US political saga.
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The United States is Canada’s closest neighbor and largest trading partner. More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the United States, and 60 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product comes from trade.
Both Republicans and Democrats have protectionist policies that could result in ripple effects for Canada.
Trump has proposed a 10% across-the-board tariff as the centerpiece of his agenda. A report issued by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce indicated that the tariffs proposed by the Republican leader would reduce the size of the economy between 0.9 and one percent, resulting in economic costs of about $30 billion annually.
Harris is expected to follow the path set by President Biden, who kept in place tariffs from the first Trump administration despite promises to repeal them. Harris is also likely to continue the Biden administration’s Procurement America rules.
Harris campaigned on her vote against the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, saying it did not do enough to protect American workers and the environment.
Both Republicans and Democrats said they would push for a review of the trilateral trade agreement in 2026.
Sixty-two per cent of Canadians said they believed a Harris win would be the best outcome for Canada.
Canadians participating in the poll believe that Harris will perform better than Trump on all issues, especially climate change, trade relations with Canada, immigration, and the US economy.
Participants also said they believed the vice president would do better on national security and the current conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Most Canadians – 65 per cent – were concerned about potential violence and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election.
Trump refused to publicly commit to accepting the results of the upcoming White House elections. He recently described the Jan. 6 attack, when his supporters stormed Capitol Hill after his 2020 loss, as a “day of love.”
While most Canadians have a stake in the outcome of their nearby neighbour’s election, that doesn’t mean they’ll be watching everything that happens.
42% said they would not watch election night but would follow the results afterward. Fifteen percent have no benefit at all.
The Leger poll collected input from 1,562 Canadian adults in an online survey from October 18-21. The survey cannot be assigned a margin of error because online surveys are not truly random samples.
& Edition 2024 The Canadian Press
