As the dust settles from the US election and the world braces for another Donald Trump presidency, Canadians may be wondering whether that increases the odds of a snap election here.
Experts say this is unlikely.
Canada’s next federal election is scheduled for next year and should take place no later than October 2025.
However, the possibility of a snap election has been raised with recent attempts by the Conservatives to oust the Trudeau government as well as the breakdown of the agreement between the NDP and Liberals.
Trump’s election win comes as support for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his minority Liberal government recently reached a “new low,” according to an exclusive Ipsos poll for Global News in September after more than a year of trailing the Conservatives by double digits. .
Meanwhile, there has also been increasing pressure from Trudeau’s own bloc to get him to step down.
Domestic dynamics in Canada will influence the timing of the next vote rather than the outcome of the U.S. election, said Mary Ann Carter, director of government relations at Earnscliffe Strategies in Ottawa, adding that “there is still a lot of uncertainty” if an election is held. He may be called up sooner rather than later.
“I don’t think it will affect us the way an early election would,” Carter told Global News in an interview.
She said a Trump presidency could lead to a “possible cabinet reshuffle.”
“I think what will happen is there will be a lot of repositioning and ramping up of engagement with the new Trump administration and identifying these key players as quickly as possible.”
There is already some movement on that front.
Trudeau announced on Thursday that he would reestablish the government Ministerial Committee on Canada-US Relations Which will focus on “critical” issues for the two countries.
“Time is on everyone’s side,” said Alex Byrne-Krzycki, a consultant at Crestview Strategy who previously worked for Liberal MP Ali Ehsasi.
He said the Liberals may want time to try to paint Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as an “authoritarian right-wing Republican” and the NDP may also want more time to fundraise for its own campaign.
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“If you’re looking at a snap election now, you’re probably looking at at least until the 2025 budget, if not until October 2025,” Bern Krzycki said.
Earlier this week, Liberal MP Kevin Lamoureux, Parliamentary Secretary to the Leader of the Government in the House of Commons, said: Poilievre was accused of being there “A shiny new far-right leader and MAGA principles” during the discussion.
Trudeau has made similar attempts to portray Poilievre and the party as holding similar views.
“The ideologically motivated MAGA Conservatives are calling for pollution to be deregulated again and for the government to get these regular checks on Canadians away from them,” he said. Also last year During the debate on carbon pricing.
“Mr. President, everything the Prime Minister has just said is factually wrong,” Mr. Poilievre responded at the time.
Poilievre’s Conservatives have already filed two no-confidence motions to try to oust Trudeau’s government this fall. Both failed to pass, but the Conservatives are expected to put forward at least one more motion before Christmas.
If a motion of no confidence is adopted, the government will fall and early elections will be held.
The Bloc Quebecois has also begun talks with other opposition parties to try to bring down the Liberal government after its demands were not met by a deadline last month.
The bloc gave the Liberals until October 29 to highlight two key bills to avoid trying to hold an election before Christmas.
Charles-Étienne Beaudry, professor of political studies at the University of Ottawa and author of Trump Radio: How he won the first timeHe said he didn’t think Trudeau would call a quick vote himself, adding that “there’s no rush to hold an election in Canada.”
“We need to take our time to ascertain what kind of government we want in Canada,” he told Global News in an interview.
Nelson Weissman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, made a similar assessment.
“Trump is unpredictable. He’s transactional. As long as you bend the knee and compliment him, he thinks you’re a good guy. “After a minute, he could think you’re terrible if you say something,” he said Wednesday.
“I can’t see any connection between yesterday’s election and having a Canadian snap election any more than there was a snap election in Ontario or anything else.”
Trudeau last called a snap election in 2021, resulting in the formation of the current minority government.
More than half of Canadians (56%) surveyed by Ipsos in September said they did not want early elections, but wanted all parties to try to work with the government on a case-by-case basis.
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