Iran’s direct attack on Israel this week has once again raised fears of a broader war in the Middle East – one that could now directly involve two of the most heavily armed countries in the region.
Israel and the United States have warned of “consequences” for Iran after it fired at least 180 ballistic missiles at Israel. The barrage was mostly intercepted by Israel’s massive air defense system and US Navy destroyers.
It is still unclear what those consequences will be. But Iran said that any response from Israel would be met with a similar response, “stronger and stronger.”
This raises further questions about what this retaliation will entail, and whether Iran is prepared for what will happen if its next strike on Israel actually arrives and hits an Israeli population center.
He added: “They should expect a very violent response, not only from Israel, but from the United States as well.” Iran knows this, said Hajar Al-Shamali, a counterterrorism expert and former White House National Security Council director for Lebanon and Syria.
Iran has long supported various armed groups currently fighting with Israel: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and more recently the Houthis in Yemen, as well as numerous other proxies in Syria and Iraq.
Many of these groups and others have been designated as terrorist organizations by Canada, the United States and other allies, as well as the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Everyone opposes Israel’s presence in the Middle East.
Since Hamas’s deadly attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which was sparked by the Israeli military offensive in Gaza, Iran has been supporting proxy attacks — such as Hezbollah’s cross-border missile strikes and Houthi strikes on ships in the Red Sea — that come in solidarity. With Hamas, while avoiding direct action against Israel itself.
But this backdoor approach is becoming increasingly difficult as Israel targets Iranian assets in the region because of this proxy support, and within Iran itself.
In April, an Israeli raid hit the Iranian consular compound in Damascus, Syria, killing more than a dozen people, including the Supreme Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Major General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and his deputy.
The strike led to Iran’s first-ever direct attack on Israel later the same month, with a barrage of drones and missiles that were intercepted or failed to reach their targets. A seven-year-old girl in Israel was seriously injured by shrapnel, and other civilians were also slightly injured.
Since then, Israel has become bolder. In July, an airstrike in the heart of Tehran killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh.
Get daily national news
Get the day’s top political, economic and current affairs news, headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day.
The Israelis said to Iran: Listen, we don’t want to play this game. “We view you as the mother ship (of these proxy groups),” said Alex Vatenka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
“Iran is basically surrounded now.”
Successive mass explosions of electronic devices in Lebanon last month killed hundreds, including Hezbollah fighters. Lebanese officials and several American media reports citing American officials say the attacks were an operation carried out by the Israeli intelligence service Mossad and the Israeli army.
Last weekend, an airstrike on Hezbollah headquarters in Beirut killed the group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah — one of the most powerful figures in Tehran’s “axis of resistance” against Israel and American interests in the Middle East. More Hezbollah leaders have been killed since then.
Iran vowed revenge, which appeared to come on Tuesday.
The Pentagon said Tuesday’s attack on Israel was “twice the size” of the attack in April, and involved more advanced ballistic missiles that would be difficult to intercept.
What capabilities does Iran have?
According to the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Iran is armed with the largest number of ballistic missiles in the Middle East.
These missiles carry warheads containing either conventional explosives or potentially biological, chemical or nuclear munitions at varying distances and speeds, depending on the type of missile.
Estimates of these ranges vary. The Arms Control Association, a Washington-based NGO, says Iran’s ballistic missiles have a range of up to 1,000 kilometers, but said other missiles under development could reach targets up to 2,500 kilometers away. Iranian official media claims that these longer-range missiles are already available.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a fatwa in the 1990s prohibiting the development and use of nuclear weapons.
but The Iranian Minister of Intelligence warned This position could change if it is “backed into a corner,” and there are concerns within the international community that Iran may still be able to use its nuclear program to produce such a weapon relatively quickly.
It is widely believed that Israel possesses nuclear weaponsBut there is no concrete evidence and the country has neither acknowledged nor denied its existence.
Vatenka says Iran’s air force is somewhat weak and has an outdated fleet, leaving its missile program and regional proxies as two main avenues to strike Israel.
But those inside Iran say the country has long focused on building up its defenses since the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, which devastated Iranian society and saw the Iraqis use chemical warfare on a massive scale under Saddam Hussein.
“The most important thing is to stay in this region,” said Hamid Reza Gholamzadeh, secretary-general of the Asian Mayors Forum and director of the Tehran-based House of Diplomacy think tank.
He added: “Iran is well equipped for this and is ready to protect this red line, this dangerous red line for its security and stability.”
Gholamzadeh added that the Iran-Iraq war also pushed the Iranian people to the possibility of direct conflict with Israel.
“Even if that happens and serious damage is caused to Iran, the situation will not be worse than…at that time,” he said. “And we survived in that time.”
Iran itself has long enjoyed beneficial relations with Russia and China in joint opposition to US-led Western alliances. But in the Middle East, it is relatively isolated.
Vatinka said other Arab countries are not looking to side with non-state actors like Hezbollah and Hamas that also threaten their kingdoms. Although Iran has supplied Russia with drones and other materials for Moscow’s war against Ukraine, Iran should not expect Russia to return the favor.
“I can’t really point to a single country that I can tell you with certainty will now come to Iran’s aid,” he said. “Iran is alone in many respects.”
New Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday visited Qatar, a country that has long played a mediator role in regional disputes including ceasefire talks in Gaza. But Gholamzadeh said Iran is focused on ensuring that Arab countries do not support Israel in the next phase of the conflict and pressuring the United States and other Western allies to back down.
Despite the Iranian regime’s weakness at home – most recently demonstrated in mass protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini – and economic struggles caused by crippling sanctions, Tuesday’s strike on Israel was met with celebrations in the streets of Tehran.
These marches were fueled by what Gholamzadeh described as the Iranian people’s deep hatred for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, and national pride that overshadows any internal issues.
“There are a lot of people upset about the bad economy,” he said. “There are many people who are against the hijab. But they are serious about defending their country.”
—With additional files from The Associated Press and Reuters
