Millions of Americans head to the polls on Tuesday as the chaotic presidential campaign reaches its climax in a deeply divided United States, where voters in a handful of battleground states will choose the country’s path forward.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have offered starkly different visions for America’s future, but polls show the two remain in hot competition.
“Any election in the United States is important and impactful for us,” said Kirsten Hillman, Canada’s ambassador to the United States. “They are essential to our economic prosperity. They are a vital security partner.”
Hillman would travel across America meeting with key members of the Republican and Democratic teams to prepare for any outcome. On election night, after her embassy duties, she will watch the results with her husband and friends — and she said she’s tempted to order pizza.
While gathering with loved ones may bring solace amid the anxious anticipation, Hillman knows better than anyone the enormous stakes Canada plays.
“Everyone who sits in the Oval Office and serves in Congress makes decisions that impact Canada, either decisions that provide us with opportunities or decisions that pose challenges for us,” Heilman said. “The mission is to be prepared for both.”
A shared history and 8,891-kilometre border will not protect Canada from the election outcome. Both candidates have proposed protectionist policies, but experts warn that if the Republican leader wins, the relationship between the two neighbors could be more difficult.
“Trump and some of the key people around him, including (former trade representative) Robert Lighthizer, really want to stick with Canada,” said Finn Hampson, a professor of international affairs at Carleton University in Ottawa.
The first Trump administration showed how vulnerable Canada was to America’s whims when the former president scrapped the North American Free Trade Agreement.
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Negotiating the agreement that will replace it, the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, was a major test for Ottawa after Trump’s victory. Whoever takes over the White House this time will be in charge during the review of the agreement in 2026.
One cause for concern in Canada and around the world is Trump’s proposed 10% blanket tariff. A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report indicates that these tariffs will shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in economic costs of about $30 billion annually.
US economists have warned that Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which would certainly have ripple effects in Canada. More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the United States, and trade accounts for 60 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product.
“When the U.S. economy grows, it’s generally a good thing for us,” Hampson said. “If they do a deep dive under Trump… that will have a knock-on effect on us, in addition to the tariffs.”
The election result may also lead to a redefinition of America’s role in the world. Trump has been critical of providing aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia, has attacked the United Nations and repeatedly claimed he will not stand up for NATO members who do not meet defense spending targets — something Canada has not done, and will not do, for years.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau promised to achieve the goal of spending the equivalent of 2% of GDP on defense by 2032.
Trump’s first term also saw the Republican leader withdraw from the Paris Agreement, an international treaty to reduce greenhouse gases.
Hampson said Republican pressure against international institutions and treaties will have a “profound impact” on Canada, but also on key allies and the world order itself.
If Harris wins, it is widely expected that there will be more normal relations based on established patterns and rules, but that does not necessarily mean smooth sailing for Canada.
The Vice President is expected to follow the path set by President Joe Biden on foreign policy and trade with Canada.
Biden signed an executive order revoking the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have transported oil from Alberta to Nebraska. The administration’s Buy American procurement rules have also raised concerns in Canada.
Laura Dawson, an expert on Canada-U.S. relations and executive director of the Future Frontiers Coalition, said she expects the Harris administration to continue with nationalist and protectionist policies.
During the election campaign, Harris spoke about the fact that she voted against the trilateral trade agreement and said it would bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States
It’s a great logo and poster, “but it’s terrible if you’re Canada,” Dawson said.
Dawson warned Trudeau’s team during a Cabinet meeting in August that regardless of who the next president is, Canada will have to work harder to maintain its current advantages of integrated trade and travel.
At the same time, many Americans are caught between anxiety and excitement. Sixteen-year-old Gavin Kupcho attended his first Trump rally in Wisconsin last week.
“I have never felt more excited in my life,” he said. “I need lower gas prices since I just got my license.”
The situation appears more dire for Antonio White, who traveled from Miami to Milwaukee to knock on Harris’ doors in the battleground state. The 63-year-old said America is going through a critical phase “where people no longer recognize fascism when they see it.”
He said: “These are elections that we must win for the sanctity of everyone, and for the sake of the country itself.”
“Democracy is on the ballot this time.”
& Edition 2024 The Canadian Press
