Azerbaijan on Thursday marked a nationwide day of mourning for the victims of the plane crash that killed 38 people and injured all 29 survivors as speculation mounted about the possible cause of the disaster, with some experts saying the plane was damaged by Russian air defence. fire.
The Azerbaijani Embraer Airlines plane 190 was on its way from the Azerbaijani capital, Baku, to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when its course was diverted for unclear reasons and crashed while trying to land in Aktau in Kazakhstan after flying east across the border. Caspian Sea.
The plane went down about 3 kilometers (about 2 mi) from Aktau. Mobile phone footage, which was circulated online, showed the plane descending heavily before crashing into the ground in the form of a fireball. Other footage showed part of the plane’s fuselage torn from the wings and the rest of the plane lying upside down in the grass.
As the official investigation into the crash began, theories abounded about the possible cause, with some experts claiming that holes seen in the plane’s tail section may indicate it may have come under fire from Russian air defense systems fending off a Ukrainian drone attack.
Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the capital of the Russian province of Chechnya, and other areas in the country’s North Caucasus. A Chechen official said another drone attack in the region was repelled on Wednesday, although federal authorities did not report it.
On Thursday, national flags were flown at half-mast across Azerbaijan, traffic across the country came to a halt at noon, and signals sounded from ships and trains as the country observed a nationwide minute of silence.
Speaking at a press conference on Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said it was too early to speculate on the causes of the accident, but said the weather forced the plane to change its planned route.
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He added: “The information available to me is that the plane changed its course between Baku and Grozny due to bad weather conditions and headed to Aktau Airport, where it crashed upon landing.”
The Russian Civil Aviation Authority, Rozavyatsia, said that preliminary information indicates that the pilots diverted to Aktau after a bird collision led to an emergency on board the plane.
According to Kazakh officials, those on board the plane were 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russian citizens, six Kazakhstani citizens, and three Kyrgyz citizens. On Thursday, the Russian Emergencies Ministry transferred nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.
Mark Zee of OPSGroup, which monitors the world’s airspace and airports for dangers, said analysis of images of fragments of the crashed plane suggested it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile, or SAM.
“There is still a lot to investigate, but at a high level, we would put the probability that it was a surface-to-air missile attack on the plane at 90-99%,” he said.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security company based in the United Kingdom, warned its clients that “the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air defense system.” Osprey provides an analysis of the airlines still flying to Russia after Western airlines halted flights during the war.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said the company had issued more than 200 alerts about drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives have been lost in a way that could have been avoided.”
Caliber, an Azerbaijani news website, claimed that the plane came under fire from a Russian Pantsir-S air defense system as it was approaching Grozny. She wondered why the Russian authorities failed to close the airport despite the apparent drone strike in the area. Khamzat Kadyrov, head of the Chechen Security Council, said that air defenses shot down drones attacking the region on Wednesday.
Caliber also questioned why Russian authorities did not allow the plane to make an emergency landing in Grozny or any other nearby Russian airports after its collision.
In response to a question about allegations that the plane was fired upon by air defense assets, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators issue their verdict.”
Kazakh Parliament Speaker Molen Ashimbaev also warned against rushing to conclusions based on images of the plane’s fragments, and described allegations of air defense launches as baseless and “immoral.”
Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan similarly avoided commenting on the possible cause of the crash, saying it was up to investigators to determine.
& Edition 2024 The Canadian Press
