As Canada enters the early stages of flu season, experts warn that a record flu outbreak in Australia may offer a worrying glimpse of what may come.
Latest data from Australian National Notified Disease Surveillance System It shows the country recorded 352,532 laboratory-confirmed influenza cases this year, surpassing the previous record of 313,615 cases in 2019.
Influenza vaccination rates in Australia have also declined steadily. With national data Which reveals a continuous decline over the past two years.
“It’s a cautionary tale. People have forgotten to get their vaccines, and the vaccination rate has been very low, which has led to a surge in cases,” Dr. Brian Conway, medical director of the Vancouver Center for Infectious Diseases, told Global News Edmonton on Wednesday.
“Flu deaths have risen across the board for every age group. A 15 percent drop in vaccination rates has led to an increase in cases and an increase in deaths,” he said.
Seasonal influenza usually spreads during the winter months. The influenza season in Australia extends from the winter of May to October, while in Canada it extends from October to May.
In Australia, the dominant influenza strain this season was Virus (H3N2).It is a subtype of influenza A that is known to cause more severe illness, especially among older adults, young children, and people with weakened immune systems.
in canada, Weekly nationwide influenza surveillance data He says it’s too early in the season to confirm which strain is dominant, but influenza A(H1N1) remains the most common strain. The data also shows that the percentage of tests positive for influenza remains below the seasonal threshold but is showing early signs of increasing in Canada.
While trends from the Southern Hemisphere flu season can sometimes provide insights into Canada’s flu season, they are not always reliable forecasts, said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist.
“Flu is unpredictable. It’s not entirely clear what a flu season will look like, as there are always some twists and turns,” Bogoch said. “Just because the Southern Hemisphere has had a certain flu season, doesn’t mean we’ll repeat that.”
Why was Australia’s flu season so bad?
Australia’s 2024 flu season has seen a major surge, surpassing last year’s total by more than 351,000 confirmed cases, up from 289,000 cases in 2023.
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This is the same as in the country Immunization Alliance The national survey found fewer Australians are choosing to protect themselves through vaccination. The coalition stated that low vaccination rates raise concerns about the country’s preparedness for future flu seasons and highlight a growing public perception that influenza is not a serious illness.
“The record number of cases should serve as a wake-up call. Flu is not just a bad cold; it can have serious consequences, especially for vulnerable populations. However, our surveys indicate that many Australians are unconcerned and feel vaccination is unnecessary. This “It puts the entire community at risk,” said Rodney Pearce, president of the Immunization Council. He said in a statement on November 5.
The flu vaccine helps protect individuals and the community by reducing the spread of infection, Conway said.
He added that the goal is to achieve herd immunity, which requires vaccinating at least 50 percent of the population.
“This creates a higher level of immunity in the community, reducing the overall spread of the disease. However, in Australia, vaccination rates have fallen below this threshold, resulting in a higher number of influenza cases.
Conway suggested one reason for Australians’ reluctance to get a flu shot is vaccine fatigue that has emerged since the COVID-19 pandemic.
For example, National survey It revealed that 54 percent of Australian participants did not consider influenza a severe disease, while 45 percent of parents were not aware of the availability of vaccines for their children.
Although data shows that influenza numbers in Australia have reached record levels, Bogoch noted that many questions remain unanswered. While poor vaccine uptake may be a contributing factor, there may be other variables at play, such as whether healthcare professionals performed more tests this season, leading to a higher number of reported cases.
Vaccine effectiveness could also be a contributing factor, although data on this typically doesn’t become available until a few months into flu season, Bogoch said.
What’s in store for Canada?
The rollout of flu vaccines has already begun in Canada — and it’s not too late to get your shot — but it’s still too early to know the exact uptake numbers.
but, National data from 2023 to 2024 It appears that the influenza vaccination coverage rate reached 42 percent, which is similar to the previous season (43 percent).
The data showed that while vaccination coverage among older adults (73 percent) is closer to the 80 percent coverage target, only 44 percent of adults ages 18 to 64 with chronic medical conditions received the influenza vaccine in Canada.
The most common reason for getting a flu shot was to prevent infection (23 percent), while the most common reason for not getting a flu shot was the perception that the vaccine is not needed (31 percent).
Although most people agreed that the flu vaccine is safe (87%), 43% of adults incorrectly believed they could get the flu from the flu vaccine.
Although the numbers of vaccinations were lower than expected, Conway said they still help mitigate the risk of flu in the community.
“We still have 100,000 cases, several hundred deaths, several thousand hospitalizations, but we’ve been able to handle it and this has been an average year for flu,” he stressed. “We can’t really afford that to go up, so we need to go out and get our shots and do “With all these other things to protect ourselves and others.”
Canada is still in the early stages of flu season. While current case numbers are low, Bogoch said cases will rise as the season progresses.
“It just started to take off, but it didn’t start any earlier. I’ve seen some data that suggests it may have started a little earlier in Australia, but that hasn’t happened here,” Bogoch said.
“I think we’re going to get it, and of course, we’re going to get coronavirus, and it’s probably going to peak at the same time as influenza and RSV, and we’re probably going to have a tough time in January or January.” February.”
