Just days after the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, industries across Alberta are preparing for the looming threat of tariffs to become a reality.
The threat of sweeping tariffs on all Canadian goods exported to the United States has created uncertainty in Alberta’s agricultural industry, as beef production requires multiple round trips across the 49th parallel.
“It’s about ‘what if,'” Janice Tranberg, president of the Alberta Cattlemen’s Association, told Global News.
“It’s hard to say for sure but there’s a lot of concern.”
According to Ryan Kasko, who runs Kasko Cattle Company out of Lethbridge, it’s difficult to plan ahead.
A 25 percent tariff, the worst-case scenario, would result in a value loss of $1,000 per head of cattle, he said.
“Frankly, most farms will go bankrupt very quickly,” Casco told Global News.
Beef led Alberta’s agricultural exports to the United States in 2023 at $3.1 billion, followed by crude canola oil at $1.2 billion, live cattle (excluding purebreds) at $980.2 million, processed potatoes at $716.5 million, and oilseed cakes and meals at $666.1 million, according to the numbers. From the government of Alberta.
Given the amount of Alberta exports to the United States, Casco said the effects of trade restrictions will also be felt by Americans in grocery stores.
“I think in an inflationary environment where food costs are rising, it goes against what you might think is normal behavior — imposing tariffs is going to push food prices to higher levels,” he said.
“I’m very optimistic that common sense will prevail.”
In a statement to Global News, Alberta Agriculture and Irrigation Minister RJ Sigurdson said the province is “very concerned about the potential for tariffs.”
Sigurdson said Alberta exported $8.9 billion worth of primary agricultural and value-added products to the United States last year.
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“There are still many unknowns about the potential impact of tariffs, but we will work with the incoming administration and industry to ensure the voices of our food producers and forestry sector are heard,” Sigurdsson’s statement said.
Impacts are also expected at companies like Rangeland RV, which regularly ships steel, aluminum and other motorhome parts back and forth from the United States.
“This can impact everything from parts timing, parts prices, RV prices, labor rates and everything in between,” Cody Nielsen, vice president of sales at Rangeland RV, told Global News.
But after the federal government announced it is planning a first round of counter-tariffs on $37 billion worth of goods deemed less harmful to the economy, the Calgary Chamber of Commerce is urging a different approach.
“Calgary Chamber members have made it clear to us that no sector should be used as a bargaining chip,” the chamber’s Ruhi Ismail Teja told Global News.
According to the chamber, retaliatory measures would “imitate and amplify” the effects of US tariffs, reducing the value of Canadian energy products.
Figures from the Chamber of Commerce show the energy industry accounts for 25 per cent of Canada’s total exports and accounts for $150 billion in annual trade with the United States.
“The ‘Team Canada’ approach is not lost at this point,” Ismail Teja said.
“It is a difficult situation for political leaders, as they need to advocate for the needs of their district or jurisdiction but also need to stand with their colleagues to present as united a front as possible.”
The Alberta government is also speaking out against any retaliatory measures that would impact the energy sector.
“Tariffs will likely impact hundreds of thousands of jobs in Alberta,” a Finance Ministry spokesperson said in a statement to Global News.
“But if the federal government imposes an import tax or ban on energy products, the impact will be crippling to the livelihoods of all Albertans.”
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