Canadian police and immigrant aid groups are bracing for an influx of asylum seekers fleeing the United States under President-elect Donald Trump, at the same time Canada is dealing with record numbers of asylum seekers and trying to bring in fewer migrants.
The former and future US president came to power this week, in part on a promise to enact the largest deportation operation in American history.
Canadian police have been preparing for months, RCMP Sergeant Charles Poirier said Thursday.
He added: “We knew a few months ago that we had to start preparing a contingency plan because if he came to power, which he will do now in a few months, it could lead to illegal immigration and irregular migration to (the province of) Quebec and to Canada.” He told Reuters.
“The worst-case scenario is people crossing in large numbers everywhere on the territory. … Suppose we had 100 people coming through the border every day, it would be difficult because our officers would have to travel great distances in order to arrest everyone.
When Trump first took office in 2017, thousands of asylum seekers crossed into Canada between official border crossings to apply for asylum — overwhelmingly at Wroxham Road, near the Quebec-New York border.
The Roxham route is no longer an option: Canada and the United States have expanded a bilateral agreement so that asylum seekers trying to cross anywhere along the 4,000-mile border are now turned back, rather than just official crossings, unless they meet a narrow exemption.
That means people who cross the United States to apply for asylum must sneak through undetected and hide for two weeks before seeking asylum — a potentially dangerous prospect, immigrant advocates say.
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But they add that people are already doing it.
“When you don’t create legitimate pathways, or when you only create pathways where people have to do the impossible to get safety, you know, unfortunately, that people will try to do the impossible,” said Abdullah Daoud, director of the International Community Foundation. Montreal Refugee Centre, which provides services.
These numbers are expected to rise.
Poirier said police were on “high alert” and prepared to deploy additional resources to patrol the border. Depending on what happens, that could mean hundreds more officers. It could also mean more cruisers, bus rentals, trailer building, and land rentals.
“All eyes are on the border now. … We were on high alert, I can tell you, a few days before the election, and we will probably remain on high alert for the coming weeks.”
Canada is already dealing with record numbers of asylum seekers: In July, nearly 20,000 people applied for asylum, according to Immigration and Refugee Board data, the highest monthly total ever on record, driven by global displacement, advocates and experts told Reuters. .
The number has since fallen to about 16,400 in September, but remains historically high. There are more than 250,000 pending claims, according to the council.
The Canadian government has reduced the number of permanent and temporary immigrants, but has less control over the number of people seeking asylum.
Its founder, Loli Rico, told Reuters that the FCJ Refugee Center in Toronto is already serving dozens of new asylum seekers weekly.
She said Trump’s election “will impact Canada.” “We will start to see more people crossing borders and showing up in cities and looking for support.”
She is worried about what will happen in the winter. In 2022, a family of four froze to death while trying to cross the border near Emerson, Manitoba.
“It will be a challenge for any refugee in the United States to feel a sense of belonging, which is why they will begin to look for what other countries can begin to provide them with protection.”
Canada’s attempts to tighten its borders have been a boon for smugglers: Rico said people were paying for help getting into the United States and making their way to Canada on their own. Now they pay extra to come to Canada by land or air.
Dowd added that ahead of a potential influx, it is time for Canada to invest in asylum infrastructure to better support and process people making asylum claims there.
“Unfortunately, until government policy changes in how it looks at this particular issue, there will be more of the same. We will not be prepared, and it will be politicized again.”
Immigration Minister Mark Miller said his government had a plan for the influx of asylum seekers but did not provide details.
Immigration Canada “will continue to prepare and anticipate all possible scenarios, and any approach taken will be primarily in the best interests of Canada and all those who live here,” Miller’s office wrote in a statement.
