Donald Trump’s return to the White House could mark a turning point for Ukraine in the fight against the Russian invasion, and perhaps the end of US support for Kiev’s war effort.
Trump and his running mate, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, have publicly railed against continued US military and financial aid to Ukraine and have pledged to push for a negotiated end to the war — which could include giving up Ukrainian territory that Russia seized in 2018. It has been going on for nearly three years in the country.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has repeatedly stressed that Russia should be forced to conclude a peace deal on Ukraine’s terms, congratulated Trump on his victory Wednesday morning and expressed confidence in working together to end the war.
“I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to a ‘peace through strength’ approach to global affairs,” Zelensky wrote on social media. “This is exactly the principle that can practically bring a just peace in Ukraine closer. I hope we will put it into practice together.”
But Zelensky may face a cool reception from Republicans in Washington, who are on track to control both chambers of Congress, after the Ukrainian president publicly criticized Trump and Vance and appeared with Democrats during his recent trip to the United States during the campaign, angering GOP lawmakers. .
“There is a lot of uncertainty that will cloud a lot of what happens,” said Oleksa Drashwich, a professor at Western University who specializes in Ukrainian and Russian history and politics.
“The worst-case scenario is that US support for Ukraine stops.”
The uncertainty comes as Ukraine faces another winter of Russian missile attacks on critical infrastructure, as well as the arrival of thousands of troops from North Korea. The war has been effectively stalemate for more than a year, and both sides continue to suffer mounting casualties.
Trump met with Zelensky in New York in September, where the Ukrainian leader detailed a “victory plan” that includes Ukraine’s membership in NATO, the restoration of all territory seized by Russia during the war, and Russian funds for Ukraine’s reconstruction. The plan proposes that Ukrainian forces become a new European line of defense against Russia and that Ukraine develops a domestic military industrial base that gradually replaces its dependence on Western weapons.
After the meeting, both Trump and Zelensky expressed confidence in their relationship and commitment to seeing an end to the war, but Trump also noted his “good relationship” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump did not explicitly say whether he wanted Ukraine to win the war with Russia, despite being asked directly several times. He merely said, “I want this war to stop,” and that he would force Zelensky and Putin to reach a peace agreement.
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Vance was more specific about what he believes this deal should be, and it is consistent with Russia’s demands.
In a podcast interview in September, Vance said the current front line could become a “heavily fortified” demilitarized zone to prevent any future invasion, meaning a significant portion of the territory Russia has seized since 2022 would have to be handed over. He added that Ukraine must also ensure its neutrality, including Not joining NATO and other “allied institutions.”
“I think this is what (the peace agreement) ultimately looks like,” Vance said. “By the way, the Germans and other countries should finance some of the reconstruction in Ukraine.”
Vance’s scenario would condemn Ukrainians living in Donbas — many of whom oppose Russia’s illegal annexation of their territory in 2022 — to further subjugation, Drachowicz said. The international community, including Canada, is investigating the forced deportation and re-education of Ukrainian children and families from Donbass by Russia.
“In the best-case scenario, there will be resistance happening there,” Drashwich said. “Ukraine will always want that territory, and we will kick the ball down the street a little further.
“I always ask, ‘What does lasting peace look like?’ Unfortunately, that is a much more difficult discussion to discuss.”
Zelensky told The New Yorker In September, he said that Vance was “too extreme” and that Trump “doesn’t really know how to stop a war, even if he thinks he knows how.”
The Ukrainian president further angered Republicans after he toured a weapons factory in Pennsylvania with the state’s Democratic governor and other lawmakers without any GOP politicians in September. US House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson, the top Republican in Congress, urged Zelensky to dismiss the Ukrainian ambassador to the United States over what he called “election interference” in a critical swing state.
Republicans suggested on Fox News He said Zelensky’s actions would be “counterproductive” to his efforts to secure future US aid from Congress, which is expected to be under full Republican control after Tuesday’s election.
As Ukraine’s largest military backer, the United States has sent tens of billions of dollars in weapons and led international efforts to isolate Moscow diplomatically and through financial sanctions. US President Joe Biden has made defending Ukraine a top priority in his foreign policy.
In terms of share of GDP, Europe has sent more total aid to Ukraine than the United States. According to the Kiel Institute tracker Of global support for Ukraine.
But Trump and Vance, along with some of their more conservative Republican allies in Congress, argued that US aid would be better spent on resolving economic issues at home, and that continuing the war would only enrich US defense contractors while pushing Russia toward launching nuclear weapons.
As president, Johnson was able to work with Democrats to pass additional aid over the objections of these hardline Republicans. The final supplemental aid bill included clear Victory Plan requirements and made some humanitarian aid in the form of a loan.
Drashwich said Zelensky and his government may have to make more concessions to Trump, such as additional loans, in order to keep some aid flowing.
In the meantime, Canada will have to continue to lead on issues such as humanitarian aid and the reunification of separated Ukrainian families, he added.
Foreign Minister Melanie Jolie told reporters in Ottawa on Wednesday that she spoke with her Ukrainian counterpart and outgoing US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the wake of Trump’s victory.
She declined to say whether the Trump administration would make it more difficult to resolve the war in Ukraine and other global conflicts the way Canada might want.
“We all want peace and stability, but at the same time we know that Ukrainians are fighting not only for their freedom but also for all of us,” she said.
Yaroslav Zheleznyak, an opposition Ukrainian lawmaker, said on the Telegram app that the transition period until Trump takes office in January could be a “window of opportunity” for Biden to take “bold steps” to secure additional support for Ukraine.
Kiev has pressured the Biden administration to accelerate arms deliveries and the ability to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles supplied by the United States, something Biden has so far been reluctant to do.
However, Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko told Global News that he felt Trump wanted to find a way to avoid a stain on his legacy.
He said: “If a disaster happens and Ukraine falls, it will indeed be a Trump disaster, just as Afghanistan has become a Biden disaster.”
“He (Trump) doesn’t want a disaster.”
-With files from Global’s Nathaniel Dove
