Americans face a decision about their country’s future, and no matter which president they choose, Canada cannot escape the pull of political polarization from its closest neighbours.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump offer very different paths forward for the United States, and the race for the White House appears to be very close.
The United States is Canada’s largest trading partner and its next president will be in charge during the review of the Canada-United States-Mexico agreement in 2026.
Harris campaigned on the basis that she voted against the Tripartite Agreement, saying it did not do enough to protect American workers or the environment. The vice president is largely expected to maintain the Buy American rules established by President Joe Biden.
The centerpiece of Trump’s agenda is the proposed 10% tariff.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the United States, and 60 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product comes from trade.
The campaign was unprecedented and tumultuous. Biden removed himself from the Democratic ticket after a disastrous presidential debate and Harris became the presidential nominee just over three months before Election Day.
There were also two attempts on Trump’s life. The image of blood streaming down his face and his fist in the air became a rallying call for the Republican leader’s most ardent supporters.
Here are five things to watch for when the votes arrive:
Any candidate who receives 270 electoral college votes wins the presidency. Pennsylvania’s 19 votes may be the most important in this election.
Both campaigns have signaled that the state is part of their path to victory, and whoever wins the Keystone State may only need two more battleground states to reach the White House.
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What’s happening in Pennsylvania may also signal voting in the other two Midwestern states.
“If you’re looking at Pennsylvania, think about how similar the voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are to each other,” said Matthew LeBow, a specialist in American politics at Western University in London, Ontario.
Other battleground countries
Americans living in six other contested states will play a decisive role in the outcome on Tuesday.
Wisconsin and Michigan went for Trump in 2016, then switched to Biden in 2020.
Michigan may be of interest to many Canadians: Canada is the state’s largest export market and imported US$50.9 billion worth of goods from its northern neighbor last year.
Georgia, North Carolina and the Sunbelt states of Arizona and Nevada could also be major indicators of who will take over the White House.
American voters will make multiple choices at the ballot box, electing not only the president, but also members of the Senate and House of Representatives. These ballot races are extremely important to determine who controls each chamber of Congress.
Democrats currently control the Senate by a narrow margin, with 34 seats up for grabs.
The Senate controls the process of appointing presidents to cabinet positions and has authority over treaties. Depending on who is in control, there could be consequences for Canada, LeBeau said.
For example, Trump suggested that vaccine skeptic Robert Kennedy Jr. would have a major role in the administration, including public health policy.
“As Canadians, we want Americans to continue getting vaccinated,” LeBeau said.
Specific races worth watching: Democratic Sen. Jon Tester vs. Republican Tim Sheehy in Montana; Republican Sen. Ted Cruz versus Democrat Colin Allred in Texas and longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown from Ohio versus Republican Bernie Moreno.
All 435 House seats are up for grabs in this election and the outcome could have far-reaching consequences for the next president. Republicans currently hold the majority, but only by a small margin.
Specific races worth watching: The open seat contest in Virginia between Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derek Anderson; Another open-seat contest in Michigan is between Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett; And the battle in Nebraska between current Republican candidate Don Bacon and Democratic challenger Tony Vargas.
Trump spent his final days on the campaign trail making baseless claims about the integrity of the election. He also said he should not have left the White House at the end of his last term, when he lost the election to Biden.
It remains to be seen whether his claims will galvanize supporters to the polls, but there is concern that they could sow chaos in the wake of the election, similar to what happened when Trump loyalists stormed Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021.
There are also concerns about the spread of misinformation by foreign actors. US intelligence officials have already referred to videos allegedly showing voter fraud in Georgia and Pennsylvania as the work of “Russian influence actors.”
American officials say that the goal is to inflame division and raise questions about the outcome of the elections.
& Edition 2024 The Canadian Press
