Canada’s plan to meet NATO’s defense spending target remains unclear, and current projections for increased military spending are based on “erroneous” economic forecasts, according to the FRA.
Report Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) Yves Giraud’s statement on Wednesday comes just one week before the U.S. election, the results of which could have security implications for Canada.
Republican candidate Donald Trump, who has often complained about other NATO members not spending the agreed-upon 2% of their gross domestic product on defense, warned that the United States may not defend allies who do not meet that goal.
He also said he would “encourage” Russia to attack so-called “delinquent” NATO countries.
The military alliance is based on the principle of collective defense – that is, an attack on one member is an attack on all and will lead to a joint response.
At this year’s NATO summit in Washington, D.C., Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pledged that Canada would reach the alliance’s target of 2% of GDP on defense by 2032, but did not provide details on how to achieve that benchmark.
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“The government has not published any figures showing how it plans to achieve the 2% target by 2032-33.” PBO said in its press release.
Canada’s updated defense policy also expects spending to rise from 1.37 per cent of GDP currently to 1.76 per cent by 2030.
The Budget Office said the 1.76 percent figure was “based on incorrect GDP projections,” and according to the private watchdog’s analysis, projected defense spending amounts to just 1.58 percent of GDP by 2029-2030.
NATO members agreed to the 2% target in 2014, but Canada has not met that target for a long time.
In order for Canada to meet its pledge, the country will have to increase its annual military spending to $81.9 billion by the 2032-33 fiscal year, the CBO said.
This means defense spending will have to nearly double the $41 billion projected for 2024-2025.
Canada’s defense budget has grown by more than 57% since 2014, and is estimated at $29.9 billion for this year.
In pure dollar terms, Canada ranks seventh among NATO allies, according to the alliance. But in the share of GDP spent on defence, Canada It ranks fifth to last out of 31 member states.
When pledging Canada’s timeline for meeting the NATO target, Trudeau said in July: “We’re constantly punching above our weight, which is not always reflected in the strict mathematical calculations that some people resort to too quickly, which is why we’ve always wondered about the 2-point ratio.” % as “the be-all and end-all.”
A leaked Pentagon assessment obtained by The Washington Post last year said Trudeau told NATO officials that Canada would never achieve the alliance’s goal.
More to come…
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