China’s population declined last year for the third year in a row, the Chinese government announced Friday, citing more demographic challenges faced by the world’s second-most populous country, which now faces an aging population and an emerging shortage of working-age people.
China’s population reached 1.408 billion people at the end of 2024, a decrease of 1.39 million from the previous year.
The numbers announced by the government in Beijing track trends around the world, but especially in East Asia, where Japan, South Korea and other countries have seen sharp declines in birth rates. Three years ago, China joined Japan and most Eastern European countries among other countries with declining populations.
The reasons are similar in many cases: high costs of living prompt young people to postpone or rule out marriage and having children while pursuing higher education and careers. While people are living longer, this is not enough to keep up with the rate of new births.
Countries like China that allow very little immigration are particularly vulnerable.
China has long been among the most populous countries in the world, enduring invasions, floods and other natural disasters to sustain its population living on rice in the south and wheat in the north. After the end of World War II and the rise of the Communist Party to power in 1949, large families reappeared and the population doubled in just three decades, even after tens of millions died in the Great Leap Forward that sought to revolutionize agriculture, industry and economic reform. The Cultural Revolution that followed several years later.
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After the end of the Cultural Revolution and the death of leader Mao Zedong, communist bureaucrats began to worry that the country’s population was beyond their ability to feed themselves, and began implementing a strict “one-child policy.” Although it was never law, women had to apply for permission to have a child, and violators could face forced late-term abortions, birth control procedures, heavy fines and the possibility of having their children deprived of an identification number, effectively making them non-citizens. .
Rural areas of China, where male preference was particularly strong and two children were still ostensibly permitted, became the focus of government efforts, where women were forced to provide proof that they were menstruating and buildings were decorated with slogans such as “Have fewer children, and A better life.” children.”
The government sought to eliminate selective abortion of female children, but with abortions legal and readily available, those operating illicit ultrasound machines enjoyed a booming business.
This has been the biggest factor in China’s lopsided sex ratio, where as many as millions of boys are born for every 100 girls, increasing the potential for social instability among China’s army of bachelors. Friday’s report showed the gender imbalance was 104.34 men for every 100 women, although independent groups give the imbalance much higher.
Even more worrying for the government is the dramatic decline in the birth rate, as China’s total population falls for the first time in decades in 2023, and India narrowly overtakes China as the world’s most populous country in the same year. Rapidly aging populations, declining labor forces, lack of consumer markets, and out-migration are putting the system under severe pressure.
While spending on the military and flashy infrastructure projects continues to rise, China’s already fragile social security system is reeling, with increasing numbers of Chinese refusing to pay contributions to its underfunded pension system.
Already, more than a fifth of the population is aged 60 or over, and the official figure is 310.3 million or 22% of the total population. By 2035, this number is expected to exceed 30%, sparking discussion of changes to the official retirement age, which is one of the lowest in the world. As the number of students declines, some vacant schools and kindergartens are being converted into care facilities for the elderly.
Such developments lend some credence to the adage that China, a country with the world’s second-largest economy but facing major headwinds, will “get old before it gets rich.”
Government incentives, including cash payments for having up to three children and financial assistance with housing costs, have only had temporary effects.
On the other hand, China continued its transition to an urban society, with an additional 10 million people moving to cities at an urbanization rate of 67%, an increase of nearly a percentage point from the previous year.
& Edition 2025 The Canadian Press
